Red Cat Holdings (Red Cat Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Red Cat Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Red Cat Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Red Cat Holdings (Red Cat Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Red Cat Holdings Inc (NAS:RCAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BQ73:Germany

Address

15 Avenue Munoz Rivera, Suite 2200, San Juan, PR, USA, 00901

Website

https://www.redcat.red

Red Cat Holdings Inc is a military technology company that integrates robotic hardware and software to provide critical situational awareness and actionable intelligence to on-the-ground warfighters and battlefield commanders. Its mission is to enhance the effectiveness and safety of military operations domestically and globally. Red Cat's suite of solutions includes Teal Drones, developer of the Golden Eagle, a small unmanned system with the highest resolution imaging for night-time operations, and Skypersonic, a leading provider of unmanned aircraft for interior spaces and other dangerous environments.

Executives

Allan Thomas Evans	officer: CEO of Fat Shark Holdings, Ltd	1400 VILLAGE SQ BLVD, UNIT #3-80448, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312
Nick Jr Liuzza	director	79 WAPPING ROAD, PORTSMOUTH RI 02871
Jeffrey M Thompson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	5 SHELL CASTLE CLUB, PALMAS DEL MAR PR 00791
Joseph David Freedman	director	945 SOUTHSIDE PLACE, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Mary Beth Long	director	309 FRANKLIN STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Christopher R. Moe	director	36 PROSPECT FARM ROAD, PORTSMOUTH RI 02871
George Michael Matus	officer: CEO of Teal Drones subsidiary	5200 S HIGHLAND DRIVE, SUITE 201, HOLLADAY 2J 84117
Gregory Ralph French	10 percent owner	280 RALEIGH QUAY, WEST BAY E9 KY1-1300
Brains Riding In Tanks, Llc	10 percent owner	8861 DAY AVE SW, NAVARRE OH 44662
Joseph P Hernon	officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer	1607 PONCE DE LEON AVENUE, SUITE 407, SAN JUAN PR 00909
Patrick Thomas Mitchell	director	10615 JEFFERSON HWY, BATON ROUGE LA 70809
Gary R Smith	director	2401 PGA BLVD, SUITE 272, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Lou Iii Werner	director	6900 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1020, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Jessica L Smith	officer: Interim CFO	8399 E. INDIAN SCHOOL RD., SUITE 202, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
John M. Wise	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	7690 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 511, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251