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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Red Cat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.96%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Computer Hardware subindustry, Red Cat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Hardware industry and Technology sector, Red Cat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Red Cat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -4.64 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.96% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Red Cat Holdings (NAS:RCAT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Red Cat Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Allan Thomas Evans | officer: CEO of Fat Shark Holdings, Ltd | 1400 VILLAGE SQ BLVD, UNIT #3-80448, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312 |
Nick Jr Liuzza | director | 79 WAPPING ROAD, PORTSMOUTH RI 02871 |
Jeffrey M Thompson | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO | 5 SHELL CASTLE CLUB, PALMAS DEL MAR PR 00791 |
Joseph David Freedman | director | 945 SOUTHSIDE PLACE, NASHVILLE TN 37203 |
Mary Beth Long | director | 309 FRANKLIN STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314 |
Christopher R. Moe | director | 36 PROSPECT FARM ROAD, PORTSMOUTH RI 02871 |
George Michael Matus | officer: CEO of Teal Drones subsidiary | 5200 S HIGHLAND DRIVE, SUITE 201, HOLLADAY 2J 84117 |
Gregory Ralph French | 10 percent owner | 280 RALEIGH QUAY, WEST BAY E9 KY1-1300 |
Brains Riding In Tanks, Llc | 10 percent owner | 8861 DAY AVE SW, NAVARRE OH 44662 |
Joseph P Hernon | officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer | 1607 PONCE DE LEON AVENUE, SUITE 407, SAN JUAN PR 00909 |
Patrick Thomas Mitchell | director | 10615 JEFFERSON HWY, BATON ROUGE LA 70809 |
Gary R Smith | director | 2401 PGA BLVD, SUITE 272, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410 |
Lou Iii Werner | director | 6900 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 1020, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
Jessica L Smith | officer: Interim CFO | 8399 E. INDIAN SCHOOL RD., SUITE 202, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
John M. Wise | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President | 7690 E. CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 511, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251 |
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