NBT Bancorp (NBT Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is NBT Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NBT Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NBT Bancorp (NBT Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » NBT Bancorp Inc (NAS:NBTB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

52 South Broad Street, Norwich, NY, USA, 13815

Website

https://www.nbtbancorp.com

NBT Bancorp Inc is a financial holding company that operates through its subsidiaries. The company's principal sources of revenue include management fees and dividends it receives through its subsidiaries. NBT Bank is a full-service community bank offering a full range of retail and commercial banking products, as well as trust and investment services. Loans products include consumer loans, home equity loans, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans. Nearly half of its loan portfolio is in commercial loans. The bank serves individuals, corporations, and municipalities, and operates scores of locations throughout the states of New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine.

Executives

Jason David Brown	director	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Cantele Richard J Jr	officer: EVP/Strategic Integration
Amy Wiles	officer: EVP, Chief Risk and Credit	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Timothy E Delaney	director	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Scott Allen Kingsley	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	8365 GLEN EAGLE DRIVE, MANLIUS NY 13104
Heidi M Hoeller	director	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Shaunastar Hyle	officer: EVP, Consumer Lending	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Cynthia A Smaniotto	officer: SVP, Chief HR Officer	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Martin Randolph Sparks	officer: EVP,General Counsel,Secretary	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Martin A Dietrich	director, other: Chairman, NBT Bancorp	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Ruth H Mahoney	officer: EVP/President of Wealth Mgmt	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Matthew K Durkee	officer: EVP / President of New England	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Jack H Webb	officer: EVP - Strategic Support	C/O NBT BANCORP INC., 52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Johanna R Ames	director	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815
Robinson V Daniel Ii	director	52 SOUTH BROAD STREET, NORWICH NY 13815