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Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry (HKSE:02373) Predictability Rank


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What is Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry (HKSE:02373) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Inc (HKSE:02373) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02138 HKSE:02219 HKSE:03886 HKSE:02279 HKSE:06639 HKSE:01846 HKSE:01526 HKSE:09906 HKSE:03869 HKSE:03309 HCA SAU:4013 SZSE:300015 HKSE:06618 XTER:FRE BKK:BDMS XKLS:5225 BSP:RDOR3 XTER:FME UHS
Traded in Other Exchanges
XC5:Germany
Address
No.1089 Dongdaming Road, Unit 1206, 12th Floor, Hongkou District, Shanghai, CHN
Website
https://www.beautyfarm.com.cn
Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Inc is an investment holding company. The Company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in providing beauty and health management service, including traditional beauty services, aesthetic medical services as well as subhealth assessment and intervention services in the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Li Yang 2202 Interest of your spouse
Li Fangyu 2101 Beneficial owner
Lian Songyong 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Chen Xiaomei 2101 Beneficial owner
Trident Trust Company (hk) Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Pan Xin Yan Zhao Tou Zi Zi Xun You Xian Gong Si
Shang Hai Pan Xin Jia Ceng Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Shang Hai You De Gu Quan Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Shang Hai Xin Zhi Yu Yuan Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo
Shang Hai Pan Nuo Qi Ye Guan Li Fu Wu You Xian Gong Si
Bei Jing You De Tou Zi Guan Li Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Bei Jing Xin Yu Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Zhong Xin Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Liansy Family Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lfye Management Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry (HKSE:02373) Headlines

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