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Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry (HKSE:02373) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) : HK$15.41 (As of Jun. 07, 2024)


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What is Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)?

As of today (2024-06-07), Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is HK$15.41.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry is -0.58%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

HKSE:02373's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry.
Industry Median: 1.01
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Chart

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Annual Data
Trend Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
- - - - -

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Semi-Annual Data
Dec19 Dec20 Jun21 Dec21 Jun22 Dec22 Jun23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

For the Medical Care Facilities subindustry, Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Healthcare Providers & Services Industry

For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.



Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.30%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.10%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's average EPS without NRI Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 9.10%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.10%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = HK$1.021.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.091)/(1+0.11) = 0.98288288288288
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=EPS without NRI*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=EPS without NRI*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=1.021*15.0894
=15.41

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(15.41-15.50)/15.41
=-0.58 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry  (HKSE:02373) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry (HKSE:02373) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
No.1089 Dongdaming Road, Unit 1206, 12th Floor, Hongkou District, Shanghai, CHN
Beauty Farm Medical & Health Industry Inc is an investment holding company. The Company and its subsidiaries are principally engaged in providing beauty and health management service, including traditional beauty services, aesthetic medical services as well as subhealth assessment and intervention services in the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Li Yang 2202 Interest of your spouse
Li Fangyu 2101 Beneficial owner
Lian Songyong 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Chen Xiaomei 2101 Beneficial owner
Trident Trust Company (hk) Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Pan Xin Yan Zhao Tou Zi Zi Xun You Xian Gong Si
Shang Hai Pan Xin Jia Ceng Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Shang Hai You De Gu Quan Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Shang Hai Xin Zhi Yu Yuan Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo
Shang Hai Pan Nuo Qi Ye Guan Li Fu Wu You Xian Gong Si
Bei Jing You De Tou Zi Guan Li Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Bei Jing Xin Yu Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo
Zhong Xin Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si
Liansy Family Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lfye Management Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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