Yuma Energy (Yuma Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Yuma Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yuma Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Yuma Energy (Yuma Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Yuma Energy Inc (OTCPK:YUMAQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1177 West Loop South, Suite 1825, Houston, TX, USA, 77027

Website

http://www.yumaenergyinc.com

Yuma Energy Inc is active in the oil and gas domain. It is an oil and gas company focused on the acquisition, development, and exploration of conventional and unconventional oil and natural gas resources in the United States Gulf Coast and California. Its operations are focused on onshore assets located in central and southern Louisiana, where it is targeting the Austin Chalk, Tuscaloosa, Wilcox, Frio, Marg Tex and Hackberry formations. In addition, it has a non-operated position in the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and operated positions in Kern and Santa Barbara Counties in California. It also holds operated and non-operated properties in southeast Texas containing both conventional and unconventional properties located in Jefferson and Madison counties.

Executives

John Christopher Teets	director	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Anthony Charles Schnur	officer: Chief Restructuring Officer	9 SILVERSTRAND PLACE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77301
James J Jacobs	officer: Chief Financial Officer	801 TRAVIS, SUITE 2020, HOUSTON TX 77002
Paul D. Mckinney	officer: President and COO	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1825, HOUSTON TX 77027
Sam L. Banks	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1825, HOUSTON TX 77027
Frank Alan Lodzinski	director	1400 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, SUITE 300, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
James W Christmas	director	1000 LOUISIANA, SUITE 5600, HOUSTON TX 77002
Bain Capital Credit Member, Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Sankaty Davis, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL CREDIT, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Neeraj Mital	director	1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1825, HOUSTON TX 77027
Richard K Stoneburner	director
Willem Mesdag	10 percent owner	C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Red Mountain Capital Partners Llc	10 percent owner	1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1100, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Rmcp Gp Llc	10 percent owner	1999 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 1100, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Red Mountain Capital Management Inc	10 percent owner	10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067