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Forvia SE (XPAR:FRVIA) Predictability Rank


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What is Forvia SE Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Forvia SE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Forvia SE Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Forvia SE's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Forvia SE (XPAR:FRVIA) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Forvia SE (XPAR:FRVIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XPAR:FR XPAR:POM XPAR:BUR XPAR:AKW XPAR:ALDEL XPAR:ALATI XPAR:PVL TSE:6902 TSE:5108 XPAR:ML MBLY GPC APTV SHSE:600660 XKRX:012330 TSX:MG XTER:CON ISX:ASII XTER:KBX TSE:5802
Traded in Other Exchanges
FURCF:USA 1FRVIA:Italy FRVIAp:UK 0MGR:UK FAU:Germany
Address
23-27 avenue des Champs-Pierreux, Nanterre, FRA, 92000
Website
https://www.faurecia.com
Forvia operates in automotive seating, interior systems, emission control technologies, electronics, lighting, and a segment called lifecycle solutions that does automotive-related recycling. The company has a global presence, with over 300 industrial facilities and 63 R&D centers in more than 40 countries, but much of its workforce is located in high-cost countries. Forvia's five largest customers by percentage of 2022 revenue are Volkswagen at 15.4%, Stellantis at 11.7%, Ford at 7.7%, the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance at 6.2%, and Mercedes-Benz at 6.1%. Geographically, Europe accounted for 44% of 2022 revenue, followed by North America at 25%, China at 21%, and all other regions at 10%.

Forvia SE (XPAR:FRVIA) Headlines

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