United Bancshares (United Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is United Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

United Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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United Bancshares (United Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » United Bancshares Inc (OTCPK:UBOH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

105 Progressive Drive, Columbus Grove, OH, USA, 45830

Website

https://www.theubank.com

United Bancshares Inc is a bank holding company. The company provides commercial and retail banking services. It offers a range of commercial banking services, including checking accounts, savings and money market accounts, online banking, wealth management services and treasury management services. The company also provides commercial, consumer, agricultural, residential mortgage and home equity loans; certificates of deposit, safe deposit box rentals, and other personalized banking services.

Executives

H Edward Rigel	director, other: Director of Subsidiary	9725 ROAD B, LEIPSIC OH 45856
Brian D Young	officer: CFO	100 S. HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Norman V Schnipke	officer: Sr Compliance Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Heather Marie Oatman	officer: Secretary	100 SOUTH HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Stacey L Clemens	officer: Chief Risk Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Brent D Nussbaum	officer: Chief Information Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Teresa M Deitering	officer: Chief Credit Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Klint D Manz	officer: Chief Lending Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Travis E Vulich	officer: SVP of Mortgage Division	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
John Patrick Miller	officer: Chief Lending Officer	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Curtis E Shepherd	officer: EVP of Retail Banking
Stacy A Cox	officer: CFO	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
David P Roach	director	1211 HEDRICK, DELPHOS OH 45833
Daniel J Lucke	officer: Interim CFO	100 S. HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830
Herbert H Huffman	director	105 PROGRESSIVE DRIVE, COLUMBUS GROVE OH 45830