United Security Bancshares (United Security Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is United Security Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Security Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Security Bancshares (United Security Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » United Security Bancshares (NAS:UBFO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2126 Inyo Street, Fresno, CA, USA, 93721

Website

https://www.unitedsecuritybank.com

United Security Bancshares operates as the holding for United Security Bank. It provides commercial banking services to the business and professional community, and individuals located in Fresno, Madera, and Kern Counties. It offers checking and savings accounts, deposits, mortgage loans, credit and debit cards, safe deposit boxes, automated teller machines, wire transfers, money market accounts, mobile banking, and wealth management services. The company's primary sources of revenue are interest income from loans and investment securities.

Executives

Oberg Robert C Jr	officer: SVP & CHIEF RISK OFFICER	610 DAYTON STREET APT# 3, HAMILTON OH 45011
Dennis R Woods	director, officer: CEO	1525 E. SHAW AVE., FRESNO CA 93710
Jagroop Gill	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
G Thompson Ellithorpe	director	1525 E SHAW AVE, FRESNO CA 93710
Thomas G Walker	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
William M. Yarbenet	officer: SVP & CCO	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Kenneth D Newby	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Susan Quigley	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Heather Hammack	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Dora Westerlund	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Nabeel Mahmood	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Brian Tkacz	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
Benjamin Mackovak	director	2126 INYO STREET, FRESNO CA 93721
David L Eytcheson	officer: SVP & COO	1525 E SHAW AVE, FRESNO CA 93710
David A Kinross	officer: SVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	600 POLLASKY AVENUE, CLOVIS CA 93612