SCI Engineered Materials (SCI Engineered Materials) Predictability Rank

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What is SCI Engineered Materials Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SCI Engineered Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SCI Engineered Materials (SCI Engineered Materials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » SCI Engineered Materials Inc (OTCPK:SCIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2839 Charter Street, Columbus, OH, USA, 43228

Website

https://www.sciengineeredmaterials.com

SCI Engineered Materials Inc is a supplier and manufacturer of advanced materials for physical vapor deposition (PVD) thin-film applications. The company is focused on markets within the PVD industry including Aerospace, Automotive, Defense, Glass, Optical Coatings, and Solar. The Company develops innovative customized solutions enabling commercial success through collaboration with end users and Original Equipment Manufacturers. Its products consist of Sputtering targets, Evaporation materials, Ceramic powders, and Substrates. Additionally, it offers various services such as advanced ceramic powders, vacuum hot pressing, machining, bonding, and many more.

Executives

Laura F Shunk	10 percent owner	8300 MULBERRY ROAD, P.O. BOX 490, CHESTERLAND OH 44026
Edward W Ungar	director	1145 CHESAPEAKE AVE, COLUMBUS OH 43212
Jeremiah Ray Young	officer: PRESIDENT	893 THAYER DRIVE, GAHANNA OH 43230
Emily Lu	director	3720 CANTERBURY CT, BOCA RATON FL 33434
John P Gilliam	director	862 MOON GLOW CT, GAHANNA OH 43230
Wickersham Charles Edward Jr	director	517 ARDEN RD, COLUMBUS OH 43214
Daniel Rooney	director, officer: President and CEO	1145 CHESAPEAKE AVE, COLUMBUS OH 43212
Investments Sa Windcom	10 percent owner
Daniel A Funk	10 percent owner	PORTER, WRIGHT, MORRIS & ARTHUR, 41 SOUTH HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Michael K Barna	officer: VP Sales - Photonics	1145 CHESAPEAKE AVE., COLUMBUS OH 43212
Robert H Peitz	director	217 LLOYD ROAD, ABERDEEN NJ 07747
Walter J Doyle	director	1970 JEWETT ROAD, POWELL OH 43065
Baker Robert J Jr	director	1145 CHESAPEAKE AVE, COLUMBUS OH 43212
Curtis A Loveland	10 percent owner, officer: Secretary	PORTER WRIGHT MORRIS & ARTHUR, 41 SOUTH HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Scott S Campbell	officer: Technical Director	1145 CHESAPEAKE AVENUE, COLUMBUS OH 43212