The Real Good Food Company (The Real Good Food Company) Predictability Rank

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What is The Real Good Food Company Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Real Good Food Company Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Real Good Food Company (The Real Good Food Company) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Real Good Food Company Inc (NAS:RGF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3 Executive Campus, Suite 155, Cherry Hill, NJ, USA, 08002

Website

https://www.realgoodfoods.com

The Real Good Food Company Inc is an innovative, high-growth, branded, health- and wellness-focused frozen food company. It develops, markets, and manufactures delicious and convenient comfort foods designed to be high in protein, low in sugar, and made from gluten- and grain-free ingredients that are intended to be sold in the health and wellness segment of the frozen food category. All of its revenue is derived from the United States.

Executives

Bryan T. Freeman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRY HILL NJ 08002
David Kanen	10 percent owner	6429 NW 65TH WAY, PARKLAND FL 33067
Philotimo Focused Growth & Income Fund	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Kanen Wealth Management Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Philotimo Fund, Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	5850 CORAL RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 309, CORAL SPRINGS FL 33076
Mark Joseph Nelson	director	LOCAL BOUNTI CORPORATION, 220 W MAIN STREET, HAMILTON MT 59840
Gerard Garfield Law	director, officer: See Remarks	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRY HILL NJ 08002
De Cardenas Gilbert B.	director	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRY HILL NJ 08002
Akshay Jagdale	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRY HILL NJ 08002
Strand Equity Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	1888 CENTURY PARK EAST, SUITE 1440, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Josh Schreider	10 percent owner	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRYL HILL NJ 08002
Awm Investment Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew J Stiffelman	10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	3 EXECUTIVE CAMPUS, SUITE 155, CHERRY HILL NJ 08002
Deanna T Brady	director	1 HORMEL STREET, AUSTIN MN 55912
Seth Rodsky	10 percent owner	1888 CENTURY PARK EAST, SUITE 1440, LOS ANGELES CA 90067