Optex Systems Holdings (Optex Systems Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Optex Systems Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Optex Systems Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Optex Systems Holdings (Optex Systems Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Optex Systems Holdings Inc (NAS:OPXS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

X62:Germany

Address

1420 Presidential Drive, Richardson, TX, USA, 75081-2439

Website

https://www.optexsys.com/optex-homepage

Optex Systems Holdings Inc manufactures optical sighting systems and assemblies for the U.S. Department of Defense, foreign military applications, and commercial markets. Its products are installed on a variety of United States military land vehicles, such as the Abrams and Bradley fighting vehicles, and light armored and security vehicles, and have been selected for installation on the Stryker family of vehicles. The company's operating segment includes Optex Richardson and Applied Optics Center Dallas. It generates maximum revenue from the Applied Optics Center Dallas segment. Some of its products include M17 Day/Thermal Periscope; DDAN / M36 Sights; Laser Protected Periscopes; Muzzle Reference Sensor and others.

Executives

Topline Capital Partners, Lp	10 percent owner	544 EUCLID STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Topline Capital Management, Llc	other: See Explanation in Footnotes	544 EUCLID STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Mcbirney Collin	other: See Explanation in Footnotes	544 EUCLID STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Judd Dayton	10 percent owner	878 S. DENTON TAP RD., SUITE 220, COPPELL TX 75019
Dale E Lehmann	director	3342 REILY MILLVILLE RD, HAMILTON OH 45013
R. Rimmy Malhotra	director	C/O COMMAND CENTER, INC., 3609 S WADSWORTH BLVD., SUITE 250, LAKEWOOD CO 80235
Lawrence F Hagenbuch	director	600 CORPORATION DRIVE, PENDLETON IN 46064
Karen Lea Hawkins	officer: VP Finance and Controller	1420 PRESIDENTIAL DRIVE, RICHARDSON TX 75081
Ephraim G Fields	10 percent owner	265 EAST 66TH STREET, #41A, NEW YORK NY 10065
Danny Robert Schoening	10 percent owner, officer: COO	1420 PRESIDENTIAL DRIVE, RICHARDSON TX 75081
Longview Fund Lp	10 percent owner	VIKING ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 66 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 320, SAN MATEO, CA 94402
Merrick D Okamoto	director	1180 NORTH TOWN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 100,, LAS VEGAS NV 89144
Stanley A Hirschman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres., Secretary and Treasurer
Ronald F Richards	director