OFG Bancorp (OFG Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is OFG Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OFG Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OFG Bancorp (OFG Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » OFG Bancorp (NYSE:OFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OFP:Germany

Address

254 Munoz Rivera Avenue, San Juan, PRI, 00918

Website

https://www.ofgbancorp.com

OFG Bancorp is a financial holding company, through its subsidiaries provides banking and financial services. It operates through three segments namely Banking, Wealth Management, and Treasury. It serves to clients such as commercial, consumer, auto, and mortgage lending, checking and savings accounts, financial planning, insurance, financial services, and investment brokerage, and corporate and individual trust and retirement services. It provides services in the region of Puerto Rico.

Executives

Ganesh Kumar	officer: CFO & EVP	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Jesus Nestor De	director	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Cesar A Ortiz	officer: SVP & Chief Risk Officer	PO BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919
Maritza Arizmendi	officer: EVP & CFO	PO BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Julian Inclan	director, DIRECTOR	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Patrick J. Haggarty	officer: Managing Director Comm. Bankin	P.O.BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Jose Rafael Fernandez	officer: Senior Executive VP	PO BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Jorge Colon	director	PO BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Angel E. Vazquez	director	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Edwin Perez	director	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Ada Garcia	officer: Managing Dir Customer Intelli	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Hugh Gonzalez	officer: General Counsel	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Annette Franqui	director	811 MAIN STREET, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Rafael A Velez-dominguez	director	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115
Sue Harnett	director	P.O. BOX 195115, SAN JUAN PR 00919-5115