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Mercer Bancorp (Mercer Bancorp) Predictability Rank


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What is Mercer Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mercer Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mercer Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mercer Bancorp (Mercer Bancorp) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Mercer Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:MSBB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1100 Irmscher Boulevard, Celina, OH, USA, 45822
Website
https://www.mercersavings.com
Mercer Bancorp Inc operates as a full-service bank. It offers deposits, loans, and other services. The loan portfolio consists primarily of residential mortgage loans secured by one- to four-family residential properties and agricultural real estate loans secured by farmland located in primary market area.
Executives
Alvin B Parmiter director, officer: President and CEO 425 MAIN STREET, CALDWELL OH 43724
Kristin M Fee director 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Rick L Ross officer: Treasurer 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Richard A Mosier director 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Trever A Bransteter officer: SVP, Lending 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Ryan Moorman officer: SVP, Lending 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Timothy L Bigham officer: SVP, Operations 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Jose W Faller director 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
Michael J Boley director 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822
David L Keiser director 1100 IRMSCHER BLVD, CELINA OH 45822

Mercer Bancorp (Mercer Bancorp) Headlines

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