Kezar Life Sciences (Kezar Life Sciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Kezar Life Sciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kezar Life Sciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kezar Life Sciences (Kezar Life Sciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kezar Life Sciences Inc (NAS:KZR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2KZ:Germany 2KZ:Germany

Address

4000 Shoreline Court, Suite 300, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.kezarlifesciences.com

Kezar Life Sciences Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It is engaged in discovering and developing novel small molecule therapeutics to treat unmet needs in autoimmunity and cancer. The pipeline consist of product candidates such as KZR-616, and the protein secretion program.

Executives

Morningside Venture Investments Ltd	10 percent owner	MCCARTHY LEGAL SERVICES, 1188 CENTRE STREET, NEWTON CENTRE MA 02459
Nicholas Michael Mordwinkin	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Franklin M Berger	director	1000 MARINA BLVD, STE 200, BRISBANE CA 94005
Wallace Courtney	director	C/O BEAM THERAPEUTICS INC., 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Micki Klearman	director	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Equal Talent Investments Ltd	10 percent owner	THC MANAGEMENT SERVICES S.A.M. 2ND FLOOR, LE PRINCE DE GALLES 3-5 AVE DE CITRONNIE, MONTE CARLO O9 98000
Noreen Henig	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John Franklin Fowler	director, officer: CEO	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Christopher J. Kirk	director, officer: President and CSO	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Marc Belsky	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Vassiliki Economides	officer: SVP, Strategy & External Aff.	C/O KEZAR LIFE SCIENCES, INC., 4000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 300, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Elizabeth Garner	director	101 POOR FARM ROAD 3RD FLOOR, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Cormorant Global Healthcare Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	100 HIGH STREET, SUITE 1105, BOSTON DC 02110
Bay City Capital Llc	10 percent owner	750 BATTERY STREET STE 400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111