Isabella Bank (Isabella Bank) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Isabella Bank Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Isabella Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Isabella Bank Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Isabella Bank's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Isabella Bank (Isabella Bank) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Isabella Bank Corp (OTCPK:ISBA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

401 North Main Street, Mount Pleasant, MI, USA, 48858

Website

https://www.isabellabank.com

Isabella Bank Corp is a US based financial service holding company. It offers banking services to businesses, institutions, and individuals. Its lending activities include loans made according to commercial and agricultural operating and real estate purposes, residential real estate loans, and consumer loans. Deposit services offered include checking accounts, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, direct deposits, cash management services, mobile and internet banking, electronic bill pay services, and automated teller machines. The company also offers full-service trust and brokerage services.

Executives

Jill Bourland	director	619 S. MISSION ST., MOUNT PLEASANT MI 48858
Jon D Catlin	officer: Chief Credit Officer	139 E. BROADWAY ST., MT. PLEASANT MI 48858
Jerome E Schwind	officer: Executive VP & COO	2132 COBBLESTONE CT., MT. PLEASANT MI 48858
Peggy Wheeler	officer: Senior Vice President
Gregory V Varner	director	8439 N. BLAIR RD., BRECKENRIDGE MI 48615
Chad R Payton	director	214 EAST RIVER ROAD, MT. PLEASANT MI 48858
Sarah R Opperman	director	401 N MAIN ST, MT PLEASANT MI 48858
Richard L Mcguirk	director	770 STONERIDGE DR., MT. PLEASANT MI 48858
David J Maness	director	PO BOX 100, MT PLEASANT MI 48858
Jae A Evans	director, officer: CEO	1030 CLUBHOUSE DRIVE, LAKE ISABELLA MI 48893
Vicki L Rupp	director	4399 HACKETT ROAD, SAGINAW MI 48603
Melinda Marie Coffin	director	253 S. LEATON RD., MT. PLEASANT MI 48858
G Charles Hubscher	director	3660 MINERAL SPRINGS TRAIL, MT PLEASANT MI 48858
Michael P Prisby	officer: Treasurer	707 RIDGE ROAD, MUNSTER IN 46321
Julie Huber	officer: VP & Chief Technology Officer	401 N MAIN STREET, MT. PLEASANT MI 48858