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Green Giant (Green Giant) Predictability Rank


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What is Green Giant Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Green Giant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Green Giant Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Green Giant (Green Giant) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Green Giant Inc (OTCPK:GGEI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ILAL TPHS AEI HCDIQ MYCB BAYP SGD XIN SRRE FHRT HKSE:00016 HKSE:01109 BOM:532868 TSE:1925 HKSE:00688 DFM:EMAAR HKSE:01113 SHSE:600048 SZSE:000002 SZSE:001979
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6 Xinghan Road, 19th Floor, Shaanxi Province, Hanzhong, CHN, 723000
Website
http://www.chinahgs.com
Green Giant Inc is engaged in real estate development buisness and green energy business. The Company engages in real estate development through the VIE, Guangsha, in mainland China, and is transitioning itself from its real estate development business to a new energy corporation. It is engaged in the construction and sale of residential apartments, car parks, and commercial properties. The company's real-estate properties include multi-layer apartment buildings, sub-high-rise apartment buildings, and high-rise apartment buildings. The project portfolios of the company are Yangzhou Pearl Garden Phase I and II, Nanyuan II Project, Mingzhu Garden, Oriental Pearl Garden, and Yangzhou Palace. Majority of the Company's revenue is derived from real estate sales.
Executives
Goldenmountain Solution Inc. 10 percent owner 1100 ABERNATHY RD NE STE 325, ATLANTA GA 30328
Gordon H Silver director C/O PUTNAM LLC, ONE POST OFFICE SQ, BOSTON MA 02109
H. David Sherman director 38 HOMEWOOD ROAD, NEWTON MA 02468
Shenghuei Luo director 6 XINGHAN ROAD 19TH FL, HANZHONG CITY, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 72300
Yuankai Wen director ROOM 907, TOWER A, HONGYUAN MANSION, NO. 4, JIU XIAN QIAO RD., BEIJING F4 100016
Xiaojun Zhu director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO 6 XINGHAN ROAD, 19TH FLOOR, HANZHONG CITY, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 723000
Carl M Berg other: Former Officer, Director, 10% 1059 EAST SKYLER DR, DRAPER UT 84020
John Leo director, officer: Secretary 80 WALL STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Zhengquan Wang director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO 101 XINANYAO STREET, JINZHOU DISTRICT, DALIAN LIAONING PROV F4 116100
Mark Stewart director PO BOX 51150, IRVINE CA 92619
Kevin J Gadawski director 19 TERRAZA DEL MAR, DANA POINT CA 92629
Brian A Lebrecht 10 percent owner 610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 800, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Gerald A Deciccio director 92 CORPORATE PARK, C-141, IRVINE CA 92606