First Northwest Bancorp (First Northwest Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is First Northwest Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Northwest Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Northwest Bancorp (First Northwest Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Northwest Bancorp (NAS:FNWB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

105 West 8th Street, Port Angeles, WA, USA, 98362

Website

https://www.ourfirstfed.com

First Northwest Bancorp is a bank holding company and a financial holding company and is engaged in banking activities through its wholly owned subsidiary, First Fed Bank, as well as certain non-banking financial activities. It includes deposit and lending transactions that are supplemented with other borrowing and investing activities. The bank's principal lending activities are focused on first lien one- to four-family mortgage loans, commercial and multi-family real estate loans, construction and land loans (including lot loans), commercial business loans and consumer loans. Geographically all the operations are functioned through the regions of Washington, US.

Executives

Christopher J Riffle	officer: Executive VP, COO, GC	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Dana D. Behar	director	105 W. EIGHTH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Matthew Deines	officer: President & CEO	C/O FIRST NORTHWEST BANCORP, 105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Tonina Norman J. Jr.	director	105 WEST 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Terry A Anderson	officer: EVP/CCO	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Lynn Terwoerds	director	105 WEST 8TH ST, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Geraldine L. Bullard	officer: EVP/CFO/Principal Acc't Off.	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Cindy H. Finnie	director	105 WEST 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Christopher Wade Neros	officer: EVP, Chief Lending Officer	105 W 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Gabriel Steven Galanda	director	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Sherilyn G Anderson	director	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
David T. Flodstrom	director	105 WEST 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Craig Alan Curtis	director	105 WEST 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Randy T. Riffle	officer: EVP/Chief Lending Officer	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362
Derek J Brown	officer: EVP, Chief HR/Marketing Off.	105 W. 8TH STREET, PORT ANGELES WA 98362