First Keystone (First Keystone) Predictability Rank

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What is First Keystone Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Keystone Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Keystone (First Keystone) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Keystone Corp (OTCPK:FKYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 West Front Street, Berwick, PA, USA, 18603

Website

https://firstkeystonecorp.fkc.bank

First Keystone Corp is a bank holding company based in the United States. The corporation operates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, which operates as an independent community financial services provider, and offers traditional banking and related financial services to individual, business, government, and public and institutional customers. Its banking activities include accepting time, demand, and savings deposits and making secured and unsecured commercial, real estate, and consumer loans.

Executives

Whitney B Holloway	director	1034 THIRD ST, NESCOPECK PA 18635
Donald Matthew Bower	director	1755 SALEM BOULEVARD, BERWICK PA 18603
Michael L Jezewski	director	662 E. MAIN STREET, NANTICOKE PA 18634
Jonathan Robert Littlewood	officer: Senior Vice President	98 W. 10TH STREET, BLOOMSBURG PA 17815
Nancy Jean Marr	director	2083 CONTINENTAL BLVD, TURBOTVILLE PA 17772
Robert Alvin Bull	director	501 E 11TH ST, BERWICK PA 18603
John E Arndt	director	5 SONNY ROAD, BERWICK PA 18603
William Elmer Rinehart	director	860 POLK VALLEY ROAD, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Conahan Joseph B Jr	director	R.D. 5 5121B, HICKORY CIRCLE, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Elaine A Woodland	officer: Senior Vice President	RR 7 BOX 7353, SAYLORSBURG PA 18353
Mark James Mcdonald	officer: SVP	3004 RED LANE, DANVILLE PA 17821
John G Gerlach	director	32 WYNDHAM HILLS, CRESCO PA 18326
Don E Bower	director	1371 STATE RT 93, BERWICK PA 18603
Jeffrey Thomas Wozniak	officer: SVP	26 GRECO DRIVE, SUGARLOAF PA 18249
Jacob Richard Price	officer: SVP	929 MCGRANN BLVD, LANCASTER PA 17601

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