Dine Brands Global (Dine Brands Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Dine Brands Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dine Brands Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Dine Brands Global (Dine Brands Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Dine Brands Global Inc (NYSE:DIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

450 North Brand Boulevard, Glendale, CA, USA, 91203-2346

Website

https://www.dinebrands.com

Dine Brands Global Inc owns and franchises thousands of restaurants under the Applebee's and International House of Pancakes names. Almost all company restaurants are located in the United States and franchised. Royalty revenue, which the company gets from franchisees based on franchisees' sales, accounts for roughly three-quarters of total company revenue. The company also earns revenue by leasing restaurant sites to franchisees. The company has four reportable segments Franchise operations, (an aggregation of Applebee's and IHOP franchise operations), Rental operations, Financing operations, and Company-operated restaurant operations. The majority of revenue is derived from the Franchise operations segment.

Executives

Vance Yuwen Chang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5780 UPLANDER WAY, CULVER CITY CA 90230
John W. Peyton	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Michael Hyter	director	450 N BRAND BLVD., GLENDALE CA 91203
Jay D. Johns	officer: President, IHOP Business Unit	450 NORTH BRAND BLVD, GLENDALE CA 91203
Lilian Tomovich	director	2028 GROUSE STREET, LAS VEGAS NV 89134
Richard J Dahl	director	DOLE FOOD CO, 1 DOLE DRIVE, WESTLAKE CA 91362
Caroline W Nahas	director	450 NORTH BRAND BLVD 7TH FL, GLENDALE CA 91203
Martha Poulter	director	C/O STARWOOD HOTELS & RESORTS WORLDWIDE, ONE STARPOINT, STAMFORD CT 06902
Christine K. Son	officer: SVP, Legal, GC and Secretary	450 N. BRAND BLVD., 7TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Susan Collyns	director	6053 W CENTURY BLVD STE 1100, C/O CALIFORNIA PIZZA KITCHEN INC, LOS ANGLES CA 90045-6430
Tony E. Moralejo	officer: President, Applebee's	450 N BRAND BLVD, 7TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Douglas M Pasquale	director	245 FICHER AVE STE D-1, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Artie Starrs	director	2180 RUTHERFORD ROAD, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Gregg Lemkau	director	645 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marc R Lisker	director	645 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-5910