Daybreak Oil & Gas (Daybreak Oil & Gas) Predictability Rank

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What is Daybreak Oil & Gas Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Daybreak Oil & Gas Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Daybreak Oil & Gas (Daybreak Oil & Gas) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Daybreak Oil & Gas Inc (OTCPK:DBRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1101 North Argonne Road, Suite A 211, Spokane Valley, WA, USA, 99212

Website

https://www.daybreakoilandgas.com

Daybreak Oil & Gas Inc is a United States-based independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. It is developing its shallow oil reserves, where it owns a 3-D seismic survey under lease in Kern County, California, and Michigan. The company's operational projects include the East Slopes Project and the Michigan Basin Project.

Executives

Gaelic Resources Ltd	10 percent owner	14 ALBERT STREET, DOUGLAS Y8 IM1 2QA
Darren Williams	director	9200 OAKDALE AVENUE, SUITE 900, LOS ANGELES CA 91311
James F Westmoreland	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	1101 N. ARGONNE ROAD, SUITE A 211, SPOKANE VALLEY WA 99212
James F. Meara	director	C/O 601 W. MAIN AVENUE, SUITE 1012, SPOKANE WA 99201
Timothy R Lindsey	director	1101 N. ARGONNE ROAD, SUITE A211, SPOKANE VALLEY WA 99212
Maximilian Investors Llc	10 percent owner	152 WEST 57TH STREET, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Wayne G Dotson	director	601 W. MAIN AVE., SUITE 1012, SPOKANE WA 99201
Karol Lynn Adams	officer: Corporate Secretary	DAYBREAK OIL AND GAS, INC., 601 WEST MAIN AVE., SUITE 1012, SPOKANE WA 99201
Anna Moe	other: Spouse of director	8305 NORTH COLTON PLACE, SPOKANE WA 99208
Keith Hooper	10 percent owner	1529 WEST ADAMS STREET, CHICAGO IL 60607
Benjamin Wade Anderson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1023 E 760 S, OREM UT 84097
Eric Moe	officer: Chief Executive Officer	8305 NORTH COLTON PLACE, SPOKANE WA 99208
Robert N Martin	director, officer: President	621 B 37 STREET SW, CALGARY A0 T3C 1R8
Jeffrey Robert Dworkin	director, officer: Secretary	320 1001 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0L5
Curtis Michael Charles Peter	director	161 DES CEDRES, ST. EUSTACHE A8 J6R 4V7

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