Creative Realities (Creative Realities) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial

What is Creative Realities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Creative Realities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Creative Realities Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Creative Realities's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Creative Realities (Creative Realities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Creative Realities Inc (NAS:CREX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13100 Magisterial Drive, Suite 100, Louisville, KY, USA, 40223

Website

https://www.cri.com

Creative Realities Inc, along with its subsidiaries, is engaged in providing innovative digital marketing technology & solutions to global retail companies, luxury and other individual retail brands, advertising networks, outdoor clients, enterprises, and other organizations. The Company operates in one reportable segment being marketing technology solutions .The company provides solutions related to digital merchandising systems, omnichannel customer engagement systems, interactive digital shopping assistants, advisors and kiosks, and high-end audio-visual networks along with marketing technologies such as mobile, social media, point-of-sale transactions, beaconing, and web-based media.

Executives

Logan William Lindsey Iv	officer: CFO	13100 CEDAR FOREST WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40245
Richard C Mills	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O POMEROY COMPUTER RESOURCES INC, 1020 PETERSBURG ROAD, HEBRON KY 41048
Donald A Harris	director	C/O NFINANSE INC., 3923 COCONUT PALM DRIVE, SUITE 107, TAMPA FL 33619
Stephen Nesbit	director	13100 MAGISTERIAL DRIVE, SUITE 100, LOUISVILLE KY 40223
Slipstream Communications, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Pegasus Investors Iv Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Pegasus Investors Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Bcom Holdings, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Pegasus Capital Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Craig M Cogut	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Bcom Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Business Services Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Slipstream Funding, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PEGASUS CAPITAL ADVISORS, L.P., 750 EAST MAIN STREET, SUITE 600, STAMFORD CT 06902
Dennis Mcgill	director	3601 PLAINS BLVD, STE 1, AMARILLO TX 79102
Alec Machiels	director	505 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022