CFSB Bancorp (CFSB Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is CFSB Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CFSB Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CFSB Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CFSB Bancorp (CFSB Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CFSB Bancorp Inc (NAS:CFSB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

15 Beach Street, Quincy, MA, USA, 02170

Website

https://www.colonialfed.com

CFSB Bancorp Inc provides banking services. It offers a variety of financial services to individuals and small businesses through its offices in Quincy, Holbrook, and Weymouth. Its primary deposit products are savings, checking, and term certificate accounts, and its primary lending product is residential mortgage loans. Its loan segment includes residential real estate, multi-family loans, commercial real estate, construction, Second mortgages and home equity lines of credit, Home Improvement, and consumer loans.

Executives

William R Esselystyn	officer: VP-Information Systems	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Susan Shea	officer: Treasurer and COO	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Michael E Mcfarland	director, officer: President and CEO	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Mary Kuropatkin	officer: VP-Retail Banking	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Kemal Denizkurt	officer: VP-Financial Markets	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Angela Blanchard	officer: VP-Retail Lending	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Paul N Baharian	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Beach, Mhc 15	10 percent owner	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Robert Guarnieri	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Edward J Keohane	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Tracy L Wilson	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
O'leary James M Jr	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170
Stephen D Marini	director	15 BEACH STREET, QUINCY MA 02170

CFSB Bancorp (CFSB Bancorp) Headlines

From GuruFocus

CFSB Bancorp, Inc. Announces 2022 Second Quarter and Year to Date Financial Results

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 02-11-2022

CFSB BANCORP, INC. ANNOUNCES FISCAL FOURTH QUARTER 2023 FINANCIAL RESULTS

By PRNewswire • 07-25-2023