C&F Financial (C&F Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is C&F Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C&F Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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C&F Financial (C&F Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » C&F Financial Corp (NAS:CFFI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3600 La Grange Parkway, Toano, VA, USA, 23168

Website

https://www.cffc.com

C&F Financial Corp is an American bank holding company. The company through its subsidiaries offers banking and related financial services to both individuals and businesses. It operates in three business activities: Community Banking, Mortgage Banking, and Consumer Finance. It mainly provides a range of lending activities, which include residential mortgage loans, commercial real estate loans, non-prime automobile lending, land acquisition, and development loans, and consumer loans. The company generates maximum revenue from the Community Banking segment.

Executives

Seaman John A Iii	other: Chief Credit Officer	802 MAIN STREET, WEST POINT VA 23181
Thomas F Cherry	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO
S Dustin Crone	other: President of Major Subsidiary	802 MAIN STREET, WEST POINT VA 23181
Audrey Dale Holmes	director	5120 ADKINS ROAD, PROVIDENCE FORGE VA 23140
Larry G Dillon	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO
Hudson James H Iii	director
Jeffery O Smith	director	3600 LA GRANGE PKWY, TOANO VA 23168
D Anthony Peay	director	3600 LA GRANGE PKWY, TOANO VA 23168
Jason E Long	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4136 LONGVIEW LANDING, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23188
Sisson George R Iii	director	3600 LAGRANGE PARKWAY, TOANO VA 23168
Bryan Edwin Mckernon	other: President of major subsidiary	1400 ALVERSER DRIVE, MIDLOTHIAN VA 23113
Causey J P Jr	director	1021 EAST CARY STREET, PO BOX 2350, RICHMOND VA 23218-2350
Barry R Chernack	director
Julie R Agnew	director	100 PIERCES COURT, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23185
Elizabeth R Kelley	director	324 5TH STREET, WEST POINT VA 23181