1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin (1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin) Predictability Rank

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What is 1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin (1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » 1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin Inc (NAS:BCOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7001 West Edgerton Avenue, Greenfield, WI, USA, 53220

Website

https://www.pyramaxbank.com

1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin Inc acts as the mutual holding company reorganization of PyraMax Bank, FSB, to become the savings and loan holding company of PyraMax Bank, FSB. Its business consists primarily of taking deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations, in one-to-four family residential real estate loans, commercial real estate loans, commercial loans, and consumer loans.

Executives

Steven T. Klitzing	officer: SVP and CFO	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Gary Zenobi	director	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
David R Ball	director, officer: President and CEO	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Kristina Hill	director	C/O 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN, INC., 7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Thomas K. Peterson	officer: SVP and Comm Lending Officer	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Monica Baker	officer: EVP and COO	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Daniel Kempel	officer: SVP and CCO	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Richard B Hurd	director, officer: EVP - Strategic Planning Ofcr	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Eric T. Hurd	officer: SVP and CLO	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Joseph G. Murphy	director	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
James Spiegelberg	director	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
John Talsky	director	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Richard J Krier	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Darrell A. Francis	director	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220
Charles Mauer	officer: SVP and Chief Credit Officer	7001 WEST EDGERTON AVENUE, GREENFIELD WI 53220