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El Pollo Loco Holdings (El Pollo Loco Holdings) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : $12.89 (As of May. 04, 2024)


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What is El Pollo Loco Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF?

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

As of today (2024-05-04), El Pollo Loco Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $12.89. The stock price of El Pollo Loco Holdings is $10.01. Therefore, El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.8.

The historical rank and industry rank for El Pollo Loco Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:

LOCO' s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.68   Med: 1.34   Max: 1.77
Current: 0.78

During the past 12 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of El Pollo Loco Holdings was 1.77. The lowest was 0.68. And the median was 1.34.

LOCO's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than
71.04% of 221 companies
in the Restaurants industry
Industry Median: 1.39 vs LOCO: 0.78

El Pollo Loco Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data

The historical data trend for El Pollo Loco Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

El Pollo Loco Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart

El Pollo Loco Holdings Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 9.79 11.17 12.59 11.98 12.89

El Pollo Loco Holdings Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 11.98 12.05 12.59 12.95 12.89

Competitive Comparison of El Pollo Loco Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF

For the Restaurants subindustry, El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.



El Pollo Loco Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation

Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.

The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.

This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)

In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)


Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get El Pollo Loco Holdings's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $22.20.

El Pollo Loco Holdings's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF=(Growth Multiple*Free Cash Flow (6 year avg)+Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23)*0.8)/Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
=(9.5203515959648*22.20112+250.696*0.8)/31.960
=12.89

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


El Pollo Loco Holdings  (NAS:LOCO) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation

The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.

Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.

El Pollo Loco Holdings's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as

Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF=Share Price/Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=10.01/12.88858786684
=0.78

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


El Pollo Loco Holdings Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms

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El Pollo Loco Holdings (El Pollo Loco Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3535 Harbor Boulevard, Suite 100, Costa Mesa, CA, USA, 92626
El Pollo Loco Holdings Inc operates and franchises hundreds of fast-casual chicken restaurants in the United States. Restaurant locations are typically free-standing and include drive-thrus, and menus include many low-priced options. Poultry is the company's largest food cost, accounting for roughly 38% of total food and paper cost, and the company manages that commodity price risk by using multiple suppliers and entering supply contracts of varying lengths depending on market conditions.
Executives
Sardar Biglari, 10 percent owner C/O BIGLARI HOLDINGS INC., 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Biglari Holdings Inc. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
John M Roth director 299 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
Fs Capital Partners V, Llc 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Biglari Capital Corp. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Lion Fund Ii, L.p. 10 percent owner 19100 RIDGEWOOD PKWY, SUITE 1200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78259
Laurance Roberts officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Maria Hollandsworth officer: Chief Operating Officer 3535 HARBOR BLVD, STE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Fs Equity Partners V Lp 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD., LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Fs Affiliates V, L.p. 10 percent owner 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 1900, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
John M. Roth director, 10 percent owner C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Ira Fils officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC., 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92614
Miguel Lozano officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 3535 HARBOR BLVD., # 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Deborah Gonzalez director 3535 HARBOR BLVD., SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626
Faginas Cody Nancy director 3535 HARBOR BLVD, SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626