What is Gouverneur Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Gouverneur Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Gouverneur Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.20 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.07% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Gouverneur Bancorp (Gouverneur Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
42 Church Street, Gouverneur, NY, USA, 13642
Gouverneur Bancorp Inc principal activities are to accept deposits from the public and utilize those funds in loans, debt obligations which are issued by the United States government and its agencies and mortgage-backed securities. The group serves individuals and businesses in St. Lawrence, Jefferson, and Lewis Counties in New York State. The company operates through its subsidiary Gouverneur Savings and Loan Association. The bank offers commercial, non-mortgage loans to local businesses for working capital, machinery and equipment purchases, expansion and other business purposes.
Executives
| Timothy J Monroe |
director |
42 CHURCH STREET, PO BOX 297, GOVENEUR NY 13642-0297 |
| Henry J Leader |
director |
42 CHURCH STREET, PO BOX 297, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
| David Claren Mcclure |
director |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642 |
| Clara Pistolesi Cummings |
director |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642 |
| Chad Brian Soper |
director |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642 |
| Amy Marie Rapholz |
director |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR DC 13642 |
| John Neil Mason |
director |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
| Kimberly Ann Adams |
officer: VP and CFO |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
| Taylor James Robbins |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
| Sadie May Hall |
officer: VP & Compliance Officer |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
| Van Vleet Charles C Jr |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O GOUVERNEUR SAVINGS LOAN ASSOC, 42 CHURCH ST. BOX 297, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642-0297 |
| Victor Alan James |
officer: VP & COO |
C/O GOUVERNEUR BANCORP, INC., 42 CHURCH STREET, GOUVERNEUR NY 13642 |
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