Invesco (Invesco) Predictability Rank

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What is Invesco Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Invesco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Invesco (Invesco) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Invesco Ltd (NYSE:IVZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3IW:Germany 3IW:Germany

Address

1555 Peachtree Street, N.E., Suite 1800, Two Peachtree Pointe, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30309

Website

https://www.invesco.com

Invesco provides investment-management services to retail (63% of managed assets) and institutional (37%) clients. At the end of October 2023, the firm had $1.451 trillion in assets under management spread among its equity (49% of AUM), balanced (4%), fixed-income (21%), alternative investment (12%), and money market (14%) operations. Passive products account for 35% of Invesco's total AUM, including 62% of the company's equity operations and 15% of its fixed-income platform. Invesco's U.S. retail business is one of the 10 largest nonproprietary fund complexes in the country. The firm also has a meaningful presence outside of North America, with 28% of its AUM sourced from Europe, Africa, and the Middle East (13%) and Asia (15%).

Executives

Thomas P Gibbons	director	THE BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORPORATION, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Martin L Flanagan	director, officer: President & CEO	1555 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 100, ATLANTA GA 30309
Elizabeth S. Johnson	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Stephanie Butcher	officer: Senior Managing Director	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, ATLANTA GA 30309
Tony Wong	officer: Senior Managing Director	1331 SPRING STREET NW, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Trian Fund Management, L.p.	director	280 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jeffrey H Kupor	officer: Senior Managing Director	1331 SPRING STREET NW, SUITE 2500, ATLANTA GA 30309
Mm Asset Management Holding Llc	10 percent owner	1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Terry Vacheron	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Massmutual Holding Llc	10 percent owner	1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co	10 percent owner	1295 STATE STREET, SPRINGFIELD MA 01111
Gregory Mcgreevey	officer: Senior Managing Director	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Jennifer Krevitt	officer: SMD & Chief HR Officer	1555 PEACHTREE ST. NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30309
Meadows Colin	officer: Senior Managing Director	1360 PEACHTREE STREET, ATLANTA GA 30309
Christopher C Womack	director