Five Star Bancorp (Five Star Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Five Star Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Five Star Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Five Star Bancorp (Five Star Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Five Star Bancorp (NAS:FSBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3100 Zinfandel Drive, Suite 100, Rancho Cordova, CA, USA, 95670

Website

https://www.fivestarbank.com

Five Star Bancorp is a California state-chartered non-member bank. The Company provides a broad range of banking products and services to small and medium-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals. It offers loan products like commercial real estate loans, commercial loans, commercial land and construction loans, and farmland loans and offers deposit products like money market accounts, non-interest-bearing accounts, and interest checking accounts.

Executives

Brett Levi Wait	officer: SVP & CIO	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
David John Lucchetti	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Robert Truxtun Perry-smith	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Leigh Ann White	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Shelley Ronan Wetton	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Donna Lucas	director	1215 K STREET, SUITE 1120, SACRAMENTO CA 95814
Michael Eugene Lee	officer: SVP & Chief Regulatory Officer	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Heather Christina Luck	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Michael Anthony Rizzo	officer: SVP & Chief Banking Officer	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Lydia Ann Ramirez-medina	officer: SVP & COO & Chief DE&I Officer	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Shannon Deary-bell	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Kevin Francis Ramos	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Judson Teichert Riggs	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Randall E Reynoso	director	3189 LAND PARK DRIVE, SACRAMENTO CA 95818
David Frank Nickum	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, SUITE 100, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670