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Molycorp (XSWX:MCP) Predictability Rank


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What is Molycorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Molycorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Molycorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Molycorp (XSWX:MCP) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Molycorp Inc, formerly known as Rare Earth Acquisitions LLC, was formed on March 4, 2010 as a new Delaware corporation. The Company manufactures custom engineered rare earth and rare metal products. Its business is organized into four reportable segments: Resources; Chemicals and Oxides; Magnetic Materials and Alloys; and Rare Metals. The Resources segment includes its operations at the Molycorp Mountain Pass Rare Earth Facility, where it conducts rare earth minerals extraction to produce: rare earth concentrates; REO, including lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, praseodymium, and yttrium; heavy rare earth concentrates, which include samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, and others; and SorbXTM, a line of proprietary rare earth-based water treatment products. The Chemicals and Oxides segment includes: production of REO at its operations at Molycorp Silmet; separated heavy rare earth oxides and other custom engineered materials from its facilities in Jiangyin, Jiangsu Province, China; and production of REO, salts of rare earth elements, or REEs, zirconium-based engineered materials and mixed rare earth/zirconium oxides from its facilities in Zibo, Shandong Province, China. The Magnetic Materials and Alloys segment includes: the production of Neo Powders through its wholly-owned manufacturing facilities in Tianjin, China, and Korat, Thailand, under the Molycorp Magnequench brand. This operating segment also includes manufacturing of neodymium and samarium magnet alloys, other specialty alloy products and rare earth metals at its MMA facility, located in Tolleson, Arizona. The Rare Metals segment produces, reclaims, refines and markets high value niche metals and their compounds that include gallium, indium, rhenium, tantalum, and niobium. Applications from products made in this segment include wireless technologies, LED, flat panel display, turbine, solar, catalyst, steel additive, electronics applications, and others. The Company's operations are subject to numerous and detailed international, national, federal, state and local laws, regulations and permits affecting the mining and mineral processing industry, including those pertaining to employee health and safety, environmental permitting and licensing, air quality standards, greenhouse gas, or GHG, emissions, water usage and disposal, pollution, waste management, plant and wildlife protection, handling and disposal of radioactive substances, remediation of soil and groundwater contamination, land use, reclamation and restoration of properties, the discharge of materials into the environment and groundwater quality and availability.

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