Wilson Bank Holding Co (Wilson Bank Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Wilson Bank Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wilson Bank Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Wilson Bank Holding Co (Wilson Bank Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Wilson Bank Holding Co (OTCPK:WBHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

623 West Main Street, Lebanon, TN, USA, 37087

Website

https://www.wilsonbank.com

Wilson Bank Holding Co is a Tennessee-based bank holding company. Its banking operations are conducted mainly through its bank subsidiary which includes a range of banking services, including checking, savings, and money market deposit accounts, certificates of deposit and loans for consumer, commercial and real estate purposes and also offers custodial, trust and discount brokerage services to its customers. The company operates primarily in Wilson, DeKalb, Smith, Rutherford, Putnam, and Sumner counties and the surrounding counties. It earns its revenue from interest and deposits income.

Executives

Deborah Varallo	director	623 WEST MAIN ST., LEBANON TN 37087
Michael G. Maynard	director	623 WEST MAIN ST., LEBANON TN 37087
Clinton M. Swain	director	623 WEST MAIN ST., LEBANON TN 37087
Robert H Goodall	director	623 WEST MAIN ST., LEBANON TN 37087
Andrew Jakes	officer: SRVP	623 WEST MAIN ST., LEBANON TN 37087
James F Comer	director	P O BOX 768, LEBANON TN 37087
Barry Buckley	officer: SrVP	623 WEST MAIN ST, PO 768, LEBNAON TN 37087
James Anthony Patton	director	P O BOX 768, LEBANON TN 37088
Amelia Vance	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	623 WEST MAIN STREET, LEBANON TN 37087
Will Jordan	director	PO 768, LEBANON TN 37087
John Foster`	officer: Srvp	623 WEST MAIN STREET, PO 768, LEBANON TN 37087
Mac Griffin	officer: srvp	623 WEST MAIN STREET, LEBANON TN 37087
Scott Jasper	officer: Srvp	623 WEST MAIN STREET, LEBANON TN 37087
Clark Oakley	officer: srvp	623 WEST MAIN ST, LEBANON TN 37087
Paula Evans	officer: svp	PO 768, 623 WEST MAIN ST, LEBANON TN 37087

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