Validus Holdings (Validus Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Validus Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Validus Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Validus Holdings (Validus Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Validus Holdings Ltd (NYSE:VRpBCL.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.validusholdings.com

Validus Holdings Ltd is a holding company for reinsurance and insurance operating companies and investment advisors. The company includes Validus Reinsurance, Talbot Underwriting, Western World Insurance Group, and AlphaCat Managers. Validus Reinsurance is a Bermuda-based reinsurer focused on treaty reinsurance. Talbot is a specialty insurance group that mainly operates in the Lloyd's insurance market. Western World Insurance Group is a U.S. specialty lines insurance company that specialises in excess and surplus lines. AlphaCat Managers provides investment and capital-management advice for third parties and Validus insurance-linked securities, as well as other property-catastrophe and specialty reinsurance investments.

Executives

Karin Hirtler-garvey	director	112 W. 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120
Patrick Boisvert	officer: Group Chief Accounting Officer	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, LTD, 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Gail M Ross	director	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, LTD., 29 RICHMOND RD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Peter Anthony Bilsby	officer: CEO, Talbot Underwriting Ltd.	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, LTD., 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Christopher E Watson	director	C/O VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 48 PAR-LA-VILLE ROAD, SUITE 1790, HAMILTON HM11 D0 HM11
Michael Richard Moore	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 29 RICHMOND RD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Therese M Vaughan	director	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Karen Salam	officer: EVP, Group Chief Risk Officer	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING/29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Lixin Zeng	officer: Pres, CEO Alpha Cat & Research	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 29 RICHMOND RD. / CHARTIS HOUSE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Kean Driscoll	officer: CEO, Validus Reinsurance, Ltd.	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 29 RICHMOND RD. / CHARTIS HOUSE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Jeffrey Sangster	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 29 RICHMOND RD. / CHARTIS HOUSE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Mahmoud Abdallah	director	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, 29 RICHMOND ROAD / CHARTIS HOUSE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Andrew E. Kudera	officer: EVP, Chief Actuary	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Robert F Kuzloski	officer: EVP, Chief Corp. Legal Officer	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS HOUSE / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Andrew Mark Gibbs	officer: EVP, Group Controller	VALIDUS HOLDINGS, THE CHARTIS BUILDING / 29 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08