Vnue (VNUE) Predictability Rank

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What is Vnue Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vnue Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vnue (VNUE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Vnue Inc (OTCPK:VNUE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

104 West 29th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

https://www.vnue.com

Vnue Incis a music technology company that utilizes its platforms to record live concerts and commercializes the content by making the content immediately available for purchase through its website and the website at Set.fm, a technology platform that enables musical artists to capture, promote and sell high-fidelity recordings instantly. Its technology provides an income source to artists and records labels from the recorded content. Additionally, it offers high-end collectible products such as CDs, USB drives, and laminates, which feature its fully mixed and mastered live concert content, through its exclusive partner DiscLive Network (the dba of RockHouse Live Media Productions, Inc).

Executives

Jake P. Noch	10 percent owner	1978 GULF SHORE BLVD, SOUTH NAPLES FL 34102
Zach Bair	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	104 W. 29TH STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Christopher L. Mann	10 percent owner	700 MARR STREET, VENICE CA 90291
Howard Collin	director, officer: CFO	239 ANVIL WAY, BALTIMORE MD 21212
Matthew P. Carona	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	296 PINE CONE LN, LUDLOW MA 01056
Brad Evans	director	580 HORNBY STREET, SUITE 440, VANCOUVER A1 V6C3B6
Andrew Grant Gasmier	director	SUITE 440, 580 HORNBY STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 3B5
Allister Blyth	officer: CFO	1C HAZEL STREET, COMO, WESTERN AUSTRALIA C3 6152
Benjamin Auld	director	SUITE 21, 22 RAILWAY ROAD, SUBIACO, WA C3 6008
Simon Eley	director, officer: President and CEO	UNIT 21, 22 RAILWAY ROAD, SUBIALO C3 6008
Six Fingers Pty Ltd. As Trustee For Six Fingers Discretionary Trust	other: Former 10% holder	SUITE 21, 22 RAILWAY RD., SUBIACO, WA C3 6008
Karim Lalani	officer: Corporate Secretary	144(B) WEST 16TH STREET, NORTH VANCOUVER A1 V7M 1T5
Christopher Robin Relph	director, officer: Chairman and CFO	#415 NEBRUCK HOUSE, OLDE TOWNE AT SANDYPORT, WEST BAY STREET, NASSAU C5 V6K 4S1
Smart Train Australian Pty Ltd.	10 percent owner	UNIT 21/22 RAILWAY ROAD, SUBIACO C3 WA 6008
Bc & N Pollard Atf Geovet Family Trust	10 percent owner	PO BOX 964, WEST PERTH C3 WA 6872