VMware (VMware) Predictability Rank

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What is VMware Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VMware Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VMware (VMware) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » VMware Inc (NYSE:VMW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3401 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304

Website

https://www.vmware.com

VMware is an industry titan in virtualizing IT infrastructure and became a stand-alone entity after spinning off from Dell Technologies in November 2021. The software provider operates in three segments: licenses; subscriptions and software as a service; and services. VMware's solutions are used across IT infrastructure, application development, and cybersecurity teams, and the company takes a neutral approach to being the cohesion between cloud environments. The Palo Alto, California, firm operates and sells on a global scale, with about half its revenue from the United States, through direct sales, distributors, and partnerships.

Executives

Jean Pierre Brulard	officer: EVP, Worldwide Sales	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Zane Rowe	officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP	1600 SMITH STREET, HQSEO, HOUSTON TX 77002
Sumit Dhawan	officer: President	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Amy Fliegelman Olli	officer: Sr. VP and General Counsel	C/O VMWARE, INC., 3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Pebbie L Verdecanna	officer: Interim CAO	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Nicole Anasenes	director	2600 ANSYS DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Slta Spv-2 (gp), L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slta Spv-2, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Silver Lake Technology Investors V, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slta V (gp), L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Silver Lake Technology Associates V, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Silver Lake Partners V De (aiv), L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sl Spv-2, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dell Inc	10 percent owner	ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Rangarajan (raghu) Raghuram	officer: EVP, Cloud Infrastructure	3401 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304