GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Valuence Merger Corp I (NAS:VMCA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Valuence Merger I (Valuence Merger I) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Valuence Merger I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Valuence Merger I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Valuence Merger I Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Valuence Merger I's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Valuence Merger I (Valuence Merger I) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Valuence Merger Corp I (NAS:VMCA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ATEK DHCA ACAH ZLS LGVC BMAC IRRX CSTA GPAC FDOC PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4 Orinda Way, Suite 100D, Orinda, CA, USA, 94563
Website
https://www.valuencecap.com
Valuence Merger Corp I is a blank check company.
Executives
Wunderlich Gary Kent Jr director CLO B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC.,, 21255 BURBANK BLVD., SUITE 400, WOODLAND CA 91367
Nelson Gentiletti director 480 FERNAND-POITRAS, TERREBONE A8 J6Y 1Y4
Zhe Zhang director UNIT 1631 LEVEL 16 MAN YEE BLDG, 60-68 DES VOEUX RD CENTRAL, HONG KONG F4 518000
Gene Young Cho officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
Sungsik (sung) Lee officer: PRESIDENT 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
Sung Yoon Woo director, officer: CEO 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
Valuence Capital, Llc 10 percent owner WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVE, GRAND CAYMAN, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008
Joong Myung Cho director 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
John June-seock Kim director 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
Sungwoo Andrew Hyung director, officer: CFO 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563
Young Min Kim director 4 ORINDA WAY, SUITE 100D, ORINDA CA 94563

Valuence Merger I (Valuence Merger I) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Valuence Merger Corp. I Announces the Separate Trading of its Ordinary Shares and Warrants, Commencing April 22, 2022

By GuruFocusNews GuruFocusNews • 04-21-2022