Vir Biotechnology (Vir Biotechnology) Predictability Rank

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What is Vir Biotechnology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vir Biotechnology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vir Biotechnology (Vir Biotechnology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Vir Biotechnology Inc (NAS:VIR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

499 Illinois Street, Suite 500, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94158

Website

https://www.vir.bio

Vir Biotechnology Inc is a commercial-stage immunology company focused on treating and preventing infectious diseases. Through internal development, collaborations, and acquisitions, it has four technology platforms, focused on antibodies, T cells, innate immunity, and small interfering ribonucleic acid, or siRNA. The company's pipeline consists of product candidates targeting hepatitis B, HBV, influenza A, human immunodeficiency virus, HIV, and tuberculosis, or TB. Its revenue sources are collaboration revenue, contract revenue, grant revenue, and license revenue.

Executives

Svf Endurance (cayman) Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, 27 HOSPITAL ROAD, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008
Vicki L Sato	director	940 WINTER STREET, PERKINELMER, INC. LEGAL DEPARTMENT, WALTHAM MA 02451
Phillip Pang	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Steven J. Rice	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Saira Ramasastry	director	501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804
Backer Marianne De	officer: Chief Executive Officer	177 E COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 700, PASADENA CA 91105
Ann M. Hanly	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Sung Lee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Johanna Friedl-naderer	officer: Chief Business Officer, Global	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
George A Scangos	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O EXELIXIS INC, 170 HARBOR WAY, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94083
Howard Horn	officer: CFO	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Charles Elliott Sigal	director	32 BREARLY ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Herbert Virgin	officer: EVP, Research & CSO	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Janet Napolitano	director	C/O VIR BIOTECHNOLOGY, INC., 499 ILLINOIS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Robert J More	director	680 S CACHE STREET, SUITE 100, BOX 10820, JACKSON WY 83001