Vision Energy (Vision Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Vision Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vision Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vision Energy (Vision Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Independent Power Producers » Vision Energy Corp (OTCPK:VENG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

95 Christopher Columbus Drive, 16th Floor, Jersey City, NJ, USA, 07302

Website

https://www.visionh2.com

Vision Energy Corp is focused on hydrogen production for transportation and power requirements to contribute to a clean energy environment. The company provides quality hydrogen production, storage, and distribution services for the hydrogen economy supply chain.

Executives

Andrew Hromyk	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
Andre Jurres	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	RIJTUIGWEG 44, EL BERGEN-OP-ZOOM P7 4611
Arron Smyth	officer: Exec VP of Corp Dev	6 CHARLWOOD DRIVE, OXSHOTT X0 KT22 0HD
Andy Hidalgo	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	140 SOUTH VILLAGE AVE, EXTON PA 19341
Judd Brammah	director, 10 percent owner	C/O VISION HYDROGEN CORPORATION, 95 CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS DRIVE, 16TH FL, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Turquino Equity, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
Matthew Hidalgo	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
Benis Paul V. Jr.	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON, NJ 08822
Stephen Paul Mullane & Marie Louise Mullane As Trustee Of The Mullane Family Trust	10 percent owner	1/40 WILSON AVENUE, WOOMBYE QLD C3 04559
Charles F Benton	director	600 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, EXTON PA 19341
Michael Doyle	director	ONE EAST UWCHLAN AVENUE, SUITE 301, EXTON PA 19341
James Strizki	10 percent owner, officer: EVP of Technical Services	C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
Michael Strizki	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822