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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Vision Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Utilities - Renewable subindustry, Vision Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Utilities - Independent Power Producers industry and Utilities sector, Vision Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Vision Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Vision Energy (OTCPK:VENG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vision Energy's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Andrew Hromyk | director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer | |
Andre Jurres | director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer | RIJTUIGWEG 44, EL BERGEN-OP-ZOOM P7 4611 |
Arron Smyth | officer: Exec VP of Corp Dev | 6 CHARLWOOD DRIVE, OXSHOTT X0 KT22 0HD |
Andy Hidalgo | director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO | 140 SOUTH VILLAGE AVE, EXTON PA 19341 |
Judd Brammah | director, 10 percent owner | C/O VISION HYDROGEN CORPORATION, 95 CHRISTOPHER COLUMBUS DRIVE, 16TH FL, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302 |
Turquino Equity, Llc | 10 percent owner | C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822 |
Matthew Hidalgo | 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer | C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822 |
Benis Paul V. Jr. | officer: Executive Vice President | C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON, NJ 08822 |
Stephen Paul Mullane & Marie Louise Mullane As Trustee Of The Mullane Family Trust | 10 percent owner | 1/40 WILSON AVENUE, WOOMBYE QLD C3 04559 |
Charles F Benton | director | 600 EAGLEVIEW BOULEVARD, SUITE 300, EXTON PA 19341 |
Michael Doyle | director | ONE EAST UWCHLAN AVENUE, SUITE 301, EXTON PA 19341 |
James Strizki | 10 percent owner, officer: EVP of Technical Services | C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822 |
Michael Strizki | 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer | C/O H/CELL ENERGY CORPORATION, 97 RIVER ROAD, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822 |
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