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Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center (Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center) Predictability Rank


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What is Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center (Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center Inc (OTCPK:TXCB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CVGI KNDI LIDR MPAA CAAS MLR HLLY SUP CPS STRT TSE:6902 APTV TSE:5108 MBLY XPAR:ML TSX:MG ISX:ASII LKQ XKRX:012330 SHSE:600660
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 61, Guoxing Avenue, Unit 609, Shengda Plaza, Meilan District, Hainan Province, Haikou, CHN, 570203
Website
http://www.txcb.com
Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center Inc is engaged in the manufacturing and distribution of gears, gearbox sand drive axles. These are marketed and sold to equipment manufacturers in China. Its products are used for making industrial, agricultural, and construction machinery, such as forklift trucks, excavators, tractors, and diesel engines.
Executives
Wei Wang 10 percent owner NO. 14, LANE 1, DONGXIAO CITY, CHONGWEN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 0000000
Liang Tan director NO. 88 LANE 7171 SHENGIANG RD., PUDONG NEW DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 00000
Yaqin Fu 10 percent owner NO. 88 LANE 7171 SHENGIANG RD., PUDONG NEW DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 00000
Xingtao Zhou director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and CFO 5-1-1206 HEFENG JIANGAN, NIANQUING ROAD MEILAN DISTRICT, HAIKOU, HAINAN PROVINCE F4 00000
Ruihua International Ltd 10 percent owner PO BOX 83, DES PLAINES IL 60016
Jayhawk Capital Management Llc other: 13(d) group owning > 10% 13021 W 74TH ST, SHAWNEE KS 66216
Jayhawk Private Equity Gp, L.p. other: 13(d) group owning > 10% 5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205
Jayhawk Private Equity Co Invest Fund Lp other: 13(d) group owning > 10% 5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205
Jayhawk Private Equity Fund L P other: 13(d) group owning > 10% 5410 WEST 61ST PLACE, SUITE 100, MISSION KS 66205
Kent C Mccarthy 10 percent owner, other: 13(d) group owning > 10% 930 TAHOE BLVD., 802-281, INCLINE VILLAGE NV 89451
Pinnacle China Fund, L.p. 10 percent owner 4965 PRESTON PARK BLVD., SUITE 240, PLANO TX 75093
Philip Widmann officer: Senior Vice President C/O USUNCO, 10510 HILLSBORO ROAD, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Jason Lu director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O USUNCO, 10510 HILLSBORO ROAD, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Ming He officer: Chief Financial Officer NO. 106 ZHONGHUAN SOUTH ROAD, AIRPORT INDUSTRIAL PARK, TIANJIN F4 300308
Haining Liu director C/O USUNCO, 10510 HILLSBORO ROAD, SANTA ANA CA 92705

Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center (Cang Bao Tian Xia International Art Trade Center) Headlines

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