Travere Therapeutics (Travere Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Travere Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Travere Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Travere Therapeutics (Travere Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Travere Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TVTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3611 Valley Centre Drive, Suite 300, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130

Website

https://www.travere.com

Travere Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The company is focused on identifying, developing and delivering life-changing therapies to people living with rare kidney, liver, and metabolic diseases. Its pipeline candidate, sparsentan, is an investigational product candidate in late-stage development for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) and IgA nephropathy (IgAN) - rare kidney disorders that often cause end-stage kidney disease.

Executives

Jula Inrig	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Peter Heerma	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
William E. Rote	officer: Senior Vice President, R&D	C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 3721 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Christopher R. Cline	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, STE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Eric M Dube	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3721 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Elizabeth E Reed	officer: SVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	9050 CAMINO SANTA FE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Sandra Calvin	officer: VP, Corp Controller and CAO	3611 VALLEY CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Laura Clague	officer: Chief Financial Officer	370 PARK RANCH PLACE, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Steve Aselage	director	6300 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Brinkley Ruth Williams	director	C/O TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Noah L. Rosenberg	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 46701 COMMERCE CENTER DRIVE, PLYMOUTH MI 48170
Suzanne Louise Bruhn	director	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 250, AUSTIN TX 78746
Neil F. Mcfarlane	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 12255 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Sandra Poole	director	830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Ron Squarer	director	C/O ADC THERAPEUTICS SA, BIOPOLE, ROUTE DE LA CORNICHE 3B, EPALINGES V8 1066