Tristar Acquisition I (Tristar Acquisition I) Predictability Rank

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What is Tristar Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tristar Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tristar Acquisition I Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tristar Acquisition I (Tristar Acquisition I) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Tristar Acquisition I Corp (NYSE:TRIS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2870 Peachtree Road, NW Suite 509, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30305

Website

https://www.tristaracq.com

Tristar Acquisition I Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Ri (richard) Yuan	officer: Chief Investment Officer	2 BURLINGTON WOODS DRIVE, SUITE 100, BURLINGTON, MA 01803
Xiaoma Lu	officer: Chief Executive Officer	2 BURLINGTON WOODS DRIVE, SUITE 100, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Xinyue Jasmine Geffner	director	105 BAISHI ROAD, JIUZHOU WEST AVENUE, ZHUHAI F4 0000000000
Wang Chiu Wong	director	THE WHITE HOUSE 20 GENESIS CLOSE, GEORGE TOWN, E9 KY1 1208
Stephen Markscheid	director	C/O ENER-CORE, INC., 9400 TOLEDO WAY, IRVINE CA 92618
Mounger William M Ii	officer: See Remarks	C/O TRITEL INC, 111 E CAPITAL STREET SUITE 500, JACKSON MS 39201
Navy Sail International Limited	10 percent owner	19/F 145 HENNESSY ROAD, WANCHAI, HONG KONG F4 00000
Michael H Liu	director, officer: CFO	2 BURLINGTON WOODS DRIVE, SUITE 100, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Alex Parker	director	C/O TRISTAR ACQUISITION I CORP., 2870 PEACHTREE RD. NW, SUITE 509, ATLANTA GA 30305
Gregory Harold Boyd	director	C/O TRISTAR ACQUISITION I CORP., 2870 PEACHTREE RD. NW, SUITE 509, ATLANTA GA 30305
Tristar Holdings I Llc	10 percent owner	2870 PEACHTREE RD NW, SUITE 509, ATLANTA GA 30305
Jones David A Jr/ky	director	C/O HUMANA INC, 500 WEST MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Cathy-ann Martine-dolecki	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	11126 MCCORMICK ROAD, HUNT VALLEY MD 21031
Chun Yi Hao	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	2 BURLINGTON WOODS DRIVE, SUITE 100, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Robert E. Willis	director	C/O PENSARE SPONSOR GROUP, LLC, 1720 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 629, ATLANTA GA 30309

Tristar Acquisition I (Tristar Acquisition I) Headlines

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