TFS Financial (TFS Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is TFS Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TFS Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TFS Financial (TFS Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » TFS Financial Corp (NAS:TFSL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PWT:Germany

Address

7007 Broadway Avenue, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44105

Website

https://www.thirdfederal.com

TFS Financial Corp is the holding company for the Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland. The company's ownership in the savings and loan association is its primary business activity. The association's principal business consists of originating and servicing residential real estate mortgage loans and attracting retail savings deposits. It does so by offering products with competitive rates and yields. The company also operates Third Capital, a wholly owned subsidiary that serves as a holding company or as an investor in vehicles such as private equity funds. Third Capital has interests in lease transactions of commercial buildings, title agencies providing escrow and settlement services, and reinsurance of private mortgage insurance on residential loans.

Executives

Daniel Fabian Weir	director	7007 BROADWAY AVE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Russell Clay Holmes	officer: Chief Retail Officer	7007 BROADWAY, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Meredith S Weil	officer: Chief Retail Officer	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Ashley H Williams	director	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Benjamin Stefanski Gavin	officer: Chief Lending Officer	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Marc A Stefanski	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Barbara J. Anderson	director	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Anthony J Asher	director	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Timothy W Mulhern	officer: Finance Manager - Future CFO	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Martin J Cohen	director	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Bradley Taylor Stefanski	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Paul J Huml	officer: Chief Operating Officer	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
Robert A Fiala	director	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105
William C Mulligan	director	201 EAST SANDPOINTE, 8TH FLOOR, SANTA ANA CA 92707
Susanne Noel Miller	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	7007 BROADWAY AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44105