Texas Community Bancshares (Texas Community Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Texas Community Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Texas Community Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Texas Community Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Texas Community Bancshares (Texas Community Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Texas Community Bancshares Inc (NAS:TCBS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

215 West Broad Street, P.O. Box 410, Mineola, TX, USA, 75773

Website

https://www.mineolacb.com

Texas Community Bancshares Inc is a full service bank. The company's business consists of taking deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank of Dallas, in residential real estate loans and commercial real estate loans and, to a lesser extent, commercial loans, construction and land loans, and consumer and other loans.

Executives

Glen Thurman	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Jason Sobel	officer: Bank President	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Haskell Strange	officer: SVP and COO	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Kraig Yarbrough	officer: SVP	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Herlocker James H. Iii	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Clifton D. Bradshaw	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Sofia Gurrusquieta	officer: Compliance, BSA, CRA Officer	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Sheree A. Mize	director, officer: Corporate Secretary	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Julie Sharff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Brittany Bessonett	officer: SVP and Marketing Officer	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Terri Baucum	officer: SVP & CLO	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Demethrius Boyd	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Anthony Scavuzzo	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Bryan Summerville	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773
Kerry Kindle	director	215 WEST BROAD STREET, MINEOLA TX 75773

Texas Community Bancshares (Texas Community Bancshares) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend

By PRNewswire • 07-27-2023

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. Declares Dividend Increase

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 05-25-2023

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. Authorizes New Stock Repurchase Program

By PRNewswire • 11-14-2023

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. Announces Declaration of Quarterly Cash Dividend

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 02-22-2023

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. Adopts Stock Repurchase Program

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 05-16-2023