GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Ltd (SZSE:000019) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1992. Start your Free Trial

What is Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Ltd (SZSE:000019) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:002726 SHSE:600186 SZSE:300791 SHSE:600882 SHSE:605016 SHSE:605339 SZSE:002891 SHSE:603711 SZSE:002991 SHSE:600251 XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS NSE:NESTLEIND SHSE:603288 LSE:ABF SHSE:600887 SZSE:300999 K
Traded in Other Exchanges
200019:China
Address
No. 9 Fuhong Road, 13th Floor, Tower A, World Trade Plaza, Futian District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518033
Website
http://www.slkg1949.com
Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Ltd is in the business of tea refining and tea sales, tea e-commerce, food and beverage, research and development. Its products include instant tea powder, juice, oyster sauce, chicken and seafood sauce, lemon tea, herbal tea, and other drinks. The company sells its products under the brand names of Golden eagle, Jufangyong, Gutan, Fuhai tong, Mitsui, Shenbao and others. It focuses on tea industry development, established industrial chain involving tea cultivation, purified tea, tea extract, tea cultural experience, e-commerce, tea trading platform, and finance. The company is also engaged in grain and oil processing and sale of flour, rice, cooking oil and other products.
Executives
Chen Can Song Independent director
Fan Zhi Qing Independent director
Yan Ze Song Executives, directors
Li Fang Executives
Yao Xiao Peng Executives
Li Yi Yan Directors, executives
Wang Zhi Ping Executives
Zheng Yu Xi Director
Lin Hong Supervisors

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Headlines

No Headlines