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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.03% (As of Jun. 04, 2024)


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What is Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.03%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Packaged Foods subindustry, Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Consumer Packaged Goods Industry

For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.08

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.03%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co  (SZSE:000019) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
No. 9 Fuhong Road, 13th Floor, Tower A, World Trade Plaza, Futian District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518033
Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co Ltd is in the business of tea refining and tea sales, tea e-commerce, food and beverage, research and development. Its products include instant tea powder, juice, oyster sauce, chicken and seafood sauce, lemon tea, herbal tea, and other drinks. The company sells its products under the brand names of Golden eagle, Jufangyong, Gutan, Fuhai tong, Mitsui, Shenbao and others. It focuses on tea industry development, established industrial chain involving tea cultivation, purified tea, tea extract, tea cultural experience, e-commerce, tea trading platform, and finance. The company is also engaged in grain and oil processing and sale of flour, rice, cooking oil and other products.
Executives
Chen Can Song Independent director
Fan Zhi Qing Independent director
Yan Ze Song Executives, directors
Li Fang Executives
Yao Xiao Peng Executives
Li Yi Yan Directors, executives
Wang Zhi Ping Executives
Zheng Yu Xi Director
Lin Hong Supervisors

Shenzhen Cereals Holdings Co (SZSE:000019) Headlines

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