1st Source (1st Source) Predictability Rank

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What is 1st Source Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

1st Source Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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1st Source (1st Source) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » 1st Source Corp (NAS:SRCE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 North Michigan Street, South Bend, IN, USA, 46601

Website

https://www.1stsource.com

1st Source Corp along with its subsidiary offers banking services. The bank provides Commercial, Agricultural, and Real Estate Loans which are given to privately owned business clients mainly located within regional market area, Consumer Services that consists of full range of consumer banking products and services, Trust and Wealth Advisory Services which includes wide range of trust, investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients, and Specialty Finance Group Services that provide a broad range of comprehensive equipment loan and lease products addressing the financing needs of a broad array of companies.

Executives

Daniel B Fitzpatrick	director	4220 EDISON LAKES PKWY, C/O QUALITY DINING INC, MISHAWAKA IN 46545
Mark D Schwabero	director	BRUNSWICK CORPORATION, 1 N FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Isaac P. Torres	director	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Brett A. Bauer	officer: Treasurer and CFO	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Andrea G Short	officer: Treasurer and CFO	PO BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Weybright Ronda Shrewsbury	director	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Tracy D Graham	director	PO BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
John T Phair	director	P.O. BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Melody Birmingham-byrd	director	PO BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Todd F. Schurz	director	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Murphy Christopher J Iii	director, officer: Chairman, CEO	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
Carmen C Murphy	10 percent owner	1237 EAST JEFFERSON BOULEVARD, SOUTH BEND IN 46617
John B Griffith	officer: Sr. VP/Secy. 1st Source Bank	P O BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634
John Afleck-graves	director	3820 EDISON LAKES PARKWAY, MISHAWAKA IN 46545
Jeffrey L Buhr	officer: Senior Vice President	PO BOX 1602, SOUTH BEND IN 46634