SmartKem (SmartKem) Predictability Rank

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What is SmartKem Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SmartKem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SmartKem (SmartKem) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » SmartKem Inc (NAS:SMTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Delaunays Road, Manchester Technology Center, Hexagon Tower, Blackley, Manchester, GBR, M9 8GQ

Website

https://www.smartkem.com

SmartKem Inc focuses on the design, development, industrialization, and technology transfer of low temp, solution-deposited organic semiconductors for transistor backplanes. The company's semiconductor platform can be used in a number of applications including mini-LED displays, AMOLED displays, fingerprint sensors, and logic circuits. The company derives revenue from the sale of TRUFLEX inks and demonstration products.

Executives

Sriram Krishnamurthy Peruvemba	director	12251 TOLUCA DRIVE, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Nigel Prue	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Steven Denbaars	director	9805 NORTHCROSS CENTER CT, SUITE H, HUNTERSVILLE NC 28078
Simon P. King	director	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Barbra Keck	director	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 600 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10020
Robert Bahns	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Boer Klaas De	director	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Ian Jenks	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Simon Ogier	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Beverley Brown	officer: Chief Scientist	C/O SMARTKEM, INC., HEXAGON TOWER, DELAUNAYS ROAD, BLACKLEY, MANCHESTER X0 M9 8GQ
Mark N. Tompkins	other: Former Director and 10% Owner	APP. 1, VIA GUIDINO 23, LUGANO-PARADISO V8 6900
Entrepreneurs Fund Lp	10 percent owner	2ND FLOOR, WINDWARD HOUSE, LA ROUTE DE LA LIBERATION, ST. HELIER Y9 JE2 3BQ
Entrepreneurs Fund General Partner Ltd	10 percent owner	2ND FLOOR WINWARD HOUSE, LA ROUTE DE LA LIBERATION, ST. HELIER Y9 JE2 3BQ
Ian Seth Jacobs	other: Former Officer and Director	2255 GLADES RD., SUITE 324A, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Octopus Titan Vct Plc	10 percent owner	33 HOBORN, LONDON X0 EC1N 2HT