SmartFinancial (SmartFinancial) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is SmartFinancial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SmartFinancial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SmartFinancial Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SmartFinancial's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SmartFinancial (SmartFinancial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » SmartFinancial Inc (NYSE:SMBK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5401 Kingston Pike, Suite 600, Knoxville, TN, USA, 37919

Website

https://www.smartfinancialinc.com

SmartFinancial Inc operates as a bank holding company for SmartBank. It offers various banking and financial services to individuals and corporate customers. The principal business of the Bank consists of attracting deposits from the general public and investing those funds, together with funds generated from operations and from principal and interest payments on loans, primarily in commercial loans, commercial and residential real estate loans, consumer loans, and residential and commercial construction loans. The primary source of revenue is interest income from earning assets, namely loans and securities.

Executives

John M Presley	director	770 NORTH WATER STREET, ATTENTION: CORPORATE SECRETARIES DEPT., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Rhett D. Jordan	officer: Chief Credit Officer & EVP	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Geoffrey Alan Wolpert	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Ted Charles Miller	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Keith Edward Whaley	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Wesley Miller Welborn	director, officer: Chairman	6401 LEE HIGHWAY, STE B, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
David Austin Ogle	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Carroll William Young Jr.	director, officer: President and CEO	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Cathy G Ackermann	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Clifton N Miller	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Ronald J Gorczynski	officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP	3980 PREMIER DRIVE, SUITE 210, HIGH POINT NC 27265
Carroll William Young Sr.	director, officer: Vice-Chairman	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
Monique Berke	director	6401 LEE HIGHWAY, SUITE 119, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
Ottis H Phillips	director	5401 KINGSTON PIKE, SUITE 600, KNOXVILLE TN 37919
James Beaumont Wicks	director	38 RIDGELAND, TUSCALOOSA AL 35406