Acelyrin (Acelyrin) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2023. Start your Free Trial

What is Acelyrin Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Acelyrin Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Acelyrin Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Acelyrin's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Acelyrin (Acelyrin) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Acelyrin Inc (NAS:SLRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4149 Liberty Canyon Road, Agoura Hills, CA, USA, 91301

Website

https://www.acelyrin.com

Acelyrin Inc is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on providing patients life-changing new treatment options by identifying, acquiring, and accelerating development and commercialization of promising drug candidates.

Executives

Shao-lee Lin	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON RD., AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Gil M Labrucherie	officer: Interim CFO	150 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Beth C Seidenberg	director, 10 percent owner
Henry O Gosebruch	director	1 N. WAUKEGAN ROAD, NORTH CHICAGO IL 60064-6092
Mardi Dier	officer: CFO and CBO	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON RD., AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Mina Kim	officer: Chief Legal & Admin. Officer	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON RD., AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Ronald Oyston	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON ROAD, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Paul Peloso	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON ROAD, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Dawn Svoronos	director	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Daniel J. Becker	director	C/O NEW LEAF VENTURE PARTNERS, TIMES SQ TOWER, 7 TIMES SQ, STE 3502, NEW YORK NY 10036
Westlake Biopartners Fund Ii, L.p.	10 percent owner	3075 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, Lp	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 4500, WALTHAM MA 02451
Sean E Harper	10 percent owner	AMGEN INC., ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320-1799
Melanie Gloria	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ACELYRIN, INC., 4149 LIBERTY CANYON ROAD, AGOURA HILLS CA 91301
Westlake Biopartners Gp Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	3075 TOWNSGATE ROAD, SUITE 140, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361