South Jersey Industries (South Jersey Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is South Jersey Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

South Jersey Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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South Jersey Industries (South Jersey Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » South Jersey Industries Inc (NYSE:SJI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 South Jersey Plaza, Folsom, NJ, USA, 08037

Website

https://www.sjindustries.com

South Jersey Industries Inc is a New Jersey holding company that acquires and develops utility companies. Through its many subsidiaries, SJI is primarily involved in transmitting, distributing, and selling natural gas and electricity in the mid-Atlantic U.S. The company segments its operations into gas utility operations and energy group businesses. The majority of SJI's total revenue comes from its gas utility operations, which encompasses the company's principal subsidiary: South Jersey Gas. SJG purchases, transmit, and sells natural gas primarily for residential consumers in southern New Jersey. The energy group also represents a significant income stream through its wholesale energy and retail electric services.

Executives

G Edison Holland	director	270 PEACHTREE ST NW BIN 910, ATLANTA GA 30303
Kevin M. O'dowd	director	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Eric Moss Stein	officer: SVP, General Counsel	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Leonard Jr Brinson	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Karen L Phillips	officer: SVP, Human Resources	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Christopher Paladino	director	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Sheila Hartnett-devlin	director, Director	SOUTH JERSEY INDUSTRIES, 1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Sunita Holzer	director	SOUTH JERSEY INDUSTRIES, 1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Kathleen D Larkin	officer: SVP & CHRO	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Cielo Hernandez	officer: SVP & CFO	C/O XL FLEET CORP., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Ann T Anthony	officer: Treasurer	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Walter M Higgins	director	SOUTH JERSEY INDUSTRIES, 1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Michael J Renna	officer: Vice President	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Melissa Orsen	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037
Steven R Cocchi	officer: SVP, Strategy & Growth	1 SOUTH JERSEY PLAZA, FOLSOM NJ 08037